Guest Columns

Perspective:
Industry Issues

How will presidential candidates handle ag trade in 2025, beyond?

Michael Dykes

Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association, contributes this column bimonthly for Cheese Market News®.

The first presidential debate is just around the corner, and I will not be terribly surprised if our nation’s trade agenda is not front and center for either candidate.

For more than three years, President Biden has pursued a worker-centered trade agenda that has ignored traditional trade negotiations. Meanwhile, former President Trump continues to talk about placing additional tariffs on imports, further reforming trade relations with China and continuing to use non-trade policy tools to leverage partners into trade negotiations with the United States. Neither candidate is offering a return to the liberalized trade ideals that powered U.S. agriculture for more than three decades. Compounding this negative political environment for trade is the historic and growing agricultural trade deficit, which USDA estimates will be a record $32 billion by the end of this year.

With this outlook in a U.S. presidential election year, where does that leave U.S. dairy? Our industry relies heavily on export growth to funnel its growth in production. In fact, 40% of the milk production increase between 2007 to 2017 went to exports. Without exports, dairy will back up at every stop in the supply chain all the way back to farm level, resulting in milk being dumped. This reality brings critical clarity to the U.S. trade agenda and begs the question: If we go eight years without a trade agenda, additional tariff reductions or access to new markets, can U.S. farms, producers and processors realistically sustain their businesses? Can we guarantee an outlet for all that milk? Cows are milked 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and that production can’t be turned off unless the farm goes out of business and sells the cow.

What is more concerning is that both future administrations face a mandatory review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The review of that agreement, which is critical for agriculture and U.S. dairy, opens the opportunity for any of the participating governments to object to its provisions. Given some of its failures — not the least of which is the lack of meaningful dairy access to Canada — real danger exists that either administration may seek to judge USMCA as yet another antiquated trade tool that must be abandoned.

That prospect would mean damaging economic repercussions for all U.S. sectors, not the least of which is dairy as Mexico and Canada are our top export markets.

So, where do these trade agendas leave U.S. dairy?

It leaves us with a call to action. U.S. dairy and agriculture need to rethink our approach. For example, can food and agriculture partners work together to convince Congress to consider a narrower version of Trade Promotion Authority that would allow the next administration to negotiate trade deals with specific markets?

Imagine improved and structured congressional consultations on trade agreement texts that yield greater congressional confidence in negotiations. Or is there a way to leverage the high interest in China by both Democrats and Republicans to examine novel approaches to trade that support America’s partners while countering China’s influence? This approach could include the option to fast-track an agreement in portions, or fast-track agreements with certain target countries, such as those bordering China or those that would help limit China’s influence in Southeast Asia, akin to the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework’s objectives. If approaches like these appealed to Congress, could we also persuade Congress to reauthorize or expand Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) to ensure no industry is negatively impacted from new deals?

It’s clear that something new must emerge for U.S. dairy exports to get back on track. U.S. agriculture cannot withstand four more years of either the Biden administration’s trade-avoiding agenda, nor the Trump administration’s suggested currency valuation negotiations as a replacement for true trade negotiations. To escape from this current quagmire on trade, we all must roll up our sleeves, think creatively and agree to work together before American agriculture loses what has taken generations to build.

The views expressed by CMN’s guest columnists are their own opinions and do not necessarily reflect those of Cheese Market News®.

© 2026 Cheese Market News • Quarne Publishing, LLC • Legal Information • Online Privacy Policy • Terms and Conditions
Cheese Market News • Business/Advertising Office: P.O. Box 24 • Sun Prairie, WI 53590 • 608/831-6002
Cheese Market News • Editorial Office: 5315 Wall Street, Suite 100 • Madison, WI 53718 • 608/288-9090